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This year, under the combined influence of supply-side reform and environmental protection policies, domestic industrial products have become stronger and the non-ferrous metals market has recovered overall.Aluminium prices have been particularly strong, up from 13,100 yuan/ton at the start of the year to 16,300 yuan/ton, while the main contract for Shanghai and aluminium has risen by about 25%, the highest price since 2012.The London market was slightly weaker than Shanghai aluminium in the same period.On the A stock market, aluminum corporation of China (chalco), A leading aluminium company, set A "investment myth" from "loss-making king" to A tenfold increase in profits and A doubling of its share price.
Middle of April this year, the national development and reform commission, the ministry, the ministry of land and resources, environmental protection department jointly issued by the project of electrolytic aluminium industry violation of special rectification action plan, to further standardize the order of investment, efforts to strict controls of new capacity;In addition, the national environmental protection agency's work plan for the prevention of air pollution in the beijing-tianjin-hebei region and the surrounding areas in 2017 also affects the market of electrolytic aluminum.Antyco expects China's production growth to accelerate in the second half of 2017.China's aluminium production in December is expected to reach 2.283 million tons, back to the start of 2016.The annual output of electrolytic aluminum is expected to be 36.4 million tons, an increase of 11.5 percent.At the same time, the monthly supply and demand relationship between the domestic electrolytic aluminum market will start to show a significant shortage from the fourth quarter, but the full-year market is expected to be a surplus of 830,000 tons.
"Policy is still the most interesting aspect of the market, and there is a possibility that there is a further increase in the price of aluminium."Analysts at antaike said they had benefited from supply-side reform, which has seen a sharp improvement in the profits of aluminium smelters since the start of the year, with some aluminium smelters profit at their best in recent years.
However, in the profit improvement drive, foreign electrolytic aluminum production steadily recovered.According to antyke analysis, in addition to the negative growth of the output of the high cost countries, such as the United States and Australia, the output of electrolytic aluminum in the remaining regions has recovered to a different degree from the same period.At the same time, some of the electrolytic aluminum production capacity that has been closed for a long time is also in the process of recovering production, while the new aluminum project is also gradually speeding up the construction progress.
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